But Google will soon catch up in the display category, eMarketer says.
Facebook's ad sales revenue will increase $2 billion year-over-year, totaling $5.1 billion for 2012, according to a new eMarketer forecast. However, the researcher predicts Google will overtake Facebook in display ad sales by 2013.
Menlo Park, CA-based Facebook will still dominate this year, raking in $2.6 billion to Google's $2.5 billion in display ad revenues. Yet by end of next year, the Mountain View, CA-based web and technology giant will hold a $3.7 billion to $3.3 billion lead over Facebook for display ads, eMarketer says.
Facebook's recent S-1 filing revealed that eMarketer was $600 million off its earlier estimates for Facebook's 2011 ad sales ($3.2 billion). In its September 2011 calculation, the researcher said Facebook would draw $3.8 billion.
In an email to ClickZ, eMarketer said the discrepancy between its prediction and Facebook's actual ad revenue was due to the latter's "disappointing" Q4 sales.
According to eMarketer, the top three portals trail both Google and Facebook in ad revenue. Yahoo ($1.4 billion), Microsoft ($700 million), and AOL ($600 million) will finish 2012 behind the leaders in that order. The trio remains in the same positions next year, according to eMarketer, but will see incremental lifts in display ad revenues.
For total revenue, eMarketer predicts Facebook will pull in $6.1 billion during 2012. Of that sum, $1 billion will come from Facebook Credits and other revenue streams this year, the researcher says.
New York-based eMarketer doesn't orchestrate primary research, instead balancing numbers from various other sources to arrive at its forecasts. Its website explains the company's methodology:
eMarketer develops its own market estimates and projections through a careful process of aggregation, normalization, weighting, evaluating and estimating. By leveraging the best market research available, we find the "best fit" with that information and make sense of the disparate numbers.
August 10-12: Revolutionize your digital marketing campaigns at ClickZ Live San Francisco! Educating marketers for over 15 years, our action-packed, educationally-focused agenda covers every aspect of digital marketing. Early Bird rates available through Friday, July 17 - save up to $300! Register today.
Christopher Heine was a senior writer for ClickZ through June 2012. He covered social media, sports/entertainment marketing, retail, and more. Heine's work has also appeared via Mashable, Brandweek, DM News, MarketingSherpa, and other tech- and ad-centric publications. USA Today, Bloomberg Radio, and The Los Angeles Times have cited him as an expert journalist.
US Consumer Device Preference Report
Traditionally desktops have shown to convert better than mobile devices however, 2015 might be a tipping point for mobile conversions! Download this report to find why mobile users are more important then ever.
E-Commerce Customer Lifecycle
Have you ever wondered what factors influence online spending or why shoppers abandon their cart? This data-rich infogram offers actionable insight into creating a more seamless online shopping experience across the multiple devices consumers are using.