China Poised for High-Speed Growth

China’s broadband Internet audience is expected to grow by nearly 500 percent to 2.9 million households during 2002, according to research from Strategy Analytics. Furthermore, the firm predicts the number of Chinese broadband households to reach 36.7 million by 2008.

Yankee Group senior analyst Agatha Poon was equally optimistic about China’s broadband growth. “We expect the Chinese broadband market will expand from merely 323,400 broadband subscribers to become a regional hub topping the marketplace with an expected 19.2 million broadband subscribers by year-end 2006”.

In-Stat/MDR is forecasting a surge in DSL subscriptions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region where DSL has grown from 6.9 million to 10.3 million lines in just the first six months of 2002. In-Stat/MDR expects China to lead the charge with 30 to 40 million DSL subscribers by 2006. Strategy Analytics found that almost three-quarters of current broadband subscribers in China use a DSL provider.

Point-Topic indicated that the Chinese government set a target of 200 million Internet users by 2005 – of which 30 to 40 percent should have broadband access – substantial growth from the roughly 57 million that are currently online.

“The Chinese government is determined to position China as a world leader in broadband adoption,” notes Nick Griffiths, Broadband Entertainment Strategies Service director at Strategy Analytics. “While the rural population is unlikely to benefit, there are signs that broadband connections will soon become the norm for the urban community.”

Meanwhile, the technological progression surges on in China as a report finds that the country is well on its way to becoming the second-largest PC market, consuming 13 million units in 2002.

Residential Broadband Internet and Digital TV Market Forecast: China
(Millions homes) 2001 2002 2003 2008
Broadband Internet * 0.5 2.9 8.4 36.7
Digital TV ** Neg 0.1 0.6 26.7
Note: *Includes all platforms (DSL, FTTH, Cable, other **Includes only digital cable
Source: Strategy Analytics, Inc.

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