Marketers Forecast Ad Spending for 2012

What impact will the economic downturn have on advertising spending in the next two years?

ZenithOptimedia CEO Tim Jones, speaking at an Advertising Week panel, said Monday his firm projects modest growth as long as the debt crisis in Greece does not spread to other large Western European countries. “There is a lot of caution out there,” he said. “Right now, the Eurozone is a real concern. Whilst you can see how Greece can be managed from the banks particularly in Europe, if it spreads to somewhere like Italy, that changes the scene somewhat.”

Still, ZenithOptimedia projects the global ad market will total $484 billion in 2012, an increase of 5.3 percent over this year’s spending. Factors contributing to that outlook: the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, the presidential election in the United States in 2012, and growth in the China, India, and Brazil advertising markets.

An estimated $83 billion – or 17.2 percent of all advertising expenditures – will be allocated to digital advertising in 2012.* That’s in contrast to $72.5 million projected for 2011 and $96 billion in 2013.

Association of National Advertisers CEO Robert Liodice also expressed caution. “Right now we are not facing a Lehman Brother’s moment,” he said, referring to the financial institution’s collapse in 2008. “When that happened, marketers backpedaled as rapidly as they could.” However, he cautioned that if the Euro debt issue worsens, “you will see the same type of unwinding” in ad spending as in 2008.

 

  Expenditures, 2011 ($B) Share Expenditures,
2013 ($B)
Share
Newspapers 93 20.2% 91 17.9%
Magazines 43 9.4% 43 8.4%
TV 185 40.2% 207 40.5%
Radio 33 7.1% 35 6.9%
Cinema 2 0.5% 2.7 0.5%
Outdoor 32 6.8% 35 6.9%
Internet 73 15.8% 96 18.9%
  461   511  

Source: ZenithOptimedia

According to the ZenithOptimedia forecast, two developing markets are in the world’s top 10 ad markets: China and Brazil. By 2013, it anticipates that Russia will move into the top 10 and Italy will drop out.

*This article has been updated. An early version incorrectly identified the year for the $83 billion projection for Internet advertising. It is 2012, not 2013.

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